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Britain house prices in London dropping due to Brexit

Recently, the Brexit incident has appeared frequently on the front page of the major media in the UK and the world. The Brexit has also been dubbed by the domestic partners as “the best court drama at the beginning of the year”. Along with the uncertainty of Brexit, many people have a wait-and-see attitude towards the economic situation after the Brexit, and some even say that Brexit will cause UK housing prices to plummet. Is it really?

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Foreign media said that according to the national (group) company house price index, compared with the same period in 2018, London's house prices in the first three months of 2019 fell by 3.8%, the largest decline since 2009.

According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel website on March 29, the UK's largest mortgage lender said that in the first quarter of 2019, London's average house price was 455,594 pounds.

The report pointed out that London house prices fell for the seventh consecutive quarter. Robert Gardner, chief economist at the National (Group) Company, blamed it on the high price and changes to the rules for buying a home for rent.

Gardner said that real estate market transactions across the UK were generally stable, but new home buyers' inquiries continued to decrease, reaching the "lowest level since 2008."

A recent survey of residential real estate in the UK by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveys shows that the current Brexit is the biggest obstacle to market activity.

More than three-quarters of the real estate agents surveyed said that the uncertainty of the UK's “Brexit” has hampered buyers and sellers of real estate.

Although the housing market in London is still weak, there are signs that demand has picked up after repricing. This form of repricing includes both house price cuts (mainly concentrated in higher-priced areas) and discounted sales, with central London having the largest discount. The survey found that buyers who have delayed buying London properties since the Brexit referendum have found business opportunities and are attracted back to the market, especially when the uncertainty of Brexit brings more popularity.

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According to a report on the website of the German Voice Radio on March 24, even if no one knows how and when the United Kingdom will "Brexit", a survey shows that Britain's "Brexit" will cause dozens of gross domestic product in Germany. The loss of billion euros. According to the investigation report released by the Bertelsmann Foundation on March 21, once the UK "Brexit" in the absence of agreement, Germany's annual gross domestic product will lose nearly 10 billion euros, equivalent to the average per person loss. About 115 euros.

According to the Foundation’s investigation, in addition to causing losses to the country, the Brexit will cause serious economic losses to Germany, a major exporter. Followed by France and Italy. The survey shows that the absence of an agreement to "Brexit" will reduce the UK's annual revenue by 57 billion euros, equivalent to a reduction of 875 euros per resident. The French's annual income will also be reduced by about 8 billion euros, and the Italians will be reduced by 4 billion euros.

The authors of the survey report pointed out that if the UK can achieve an orderly "Brexit", the negative impact will be significantly reduced. They believe that the reason why Britain's "Brexit" affects the national income of other countries is because of the increase in tariffs, rising prices and the decline of competitiveness in Europe, thus negatively affecting prices and wages.

The survey shows that the loss of income caused by the orderly Brexit in the UK will be reduced to about 5 billion euros. The loss of the entire EU (excluding the UK) will also be halved, and is expected to drop to 22 billion euros.

The current situation in the UK is still a mess, no one can be 100% sure, what will happen in the end.

A poll by LonRes, a UK real estate platform website, showed that 69% of respondents believe that the UK is still the biggest drag on market demand in the coming year.

The housing sales data released by the UK National Statistics Agency confirms this. Since 2016, the volume of housing in the south of England, especially in London, has dropped significantly. The volume of transactions in October 2018 was only 6,670, compared with the same period of the previous year. Compared with the reduction of 1,320 sets, it is down by nearly 40% compared with the peak of 2015~2016.

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Nick Whitten, director of residential research at Jones Lang LaSalle (JJL), said that the UK property market has cooled down before the Brexit deadline, not because investors lack confidence in the future of the market, but more because of careful consideration. Political uncertainty has dissipated.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, also said: "There is no doubt that the trend of Brexit this year will have a major impact on the property market; however, in the long run, The relationship between supply and demand is the core factor affecting the market."

Robert Butterworth, principal investigator of the housing agency Jackson-Stopps, believes that the actual demand for the market is severely compressed by the uncertainty brought about by Brexit. As long as the Brexit does not show particularly bad conditions, after the situation is stable Market volume – especially in central London – will rebound quickly.

Hansen Lu, an economist at Capital Economics, a real estate consultancy, is more optimistic. He said that even if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, house prices are unlikely to collapse: "So we expect this year's house price The growth rate will maintain the current speed and will increase by 1% by the end of 2019."