Can the DPRK Summit open the window of peace
Why is Vietnam a meeting place that both the DPRK and the United States can accept? From the perspective of North Korea, the relationship between the DPRK and the Vietnam has a long history. On January 31, 1950, North Korea and Vietnam formally established diplomatic relations. The establishment of diplomatic relations has been 69 years old.
Kim Il Sung visited Vietnam twice in 1958 and 1964. The Vietnamese leader also visited the DPRK twice: In July 1957, Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh led a delegation to visit Pyongyang; in October 2007, the then General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nong Duc Manh, visited North Korea.
The Korean Central News Agency reported that during Kim Jong-un’s visit to Vietnam, the top leaders of the two countries will hold meetings and talks, and the DPRK and Vietnam have maintained friendly relations. It is also appropriate to consider safety and distance. This may be an important reason for Kim Jong-un to travel from Pyongyang to Vietnam.
From the perspective of the United States, the United States has long abandoned its former suspicion and bilateral relations have developed rapidly. From 1995 to 2016, the trade volume between the United States and Vietnam soared from 451 million US dollars to 52 billion US dollars.
The relationship between the United States and Vietnam is moving to the political, economic and military fields. Expansion. Therefore, Vietnam is also a venue for the United States to accept. Some analysts believe that this may imply the expectation that the United States will learn from the "Vietnamese model" and encourage North Korea to abandon its nuclear and economic development.
There are many reasons to believe that the outcome of the DPRK-California summit will be more optimistic. It is possible to reach practical arrangements for the non-nuclearization issue or to achieve a similar “timetable and road map”. It is speculated that the following four aspects may be covered:
First, North Korea destroyed the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon. The DPRK has stated that if the United States takes corresponding measures, the DPRK intends to take additional measures such as permanently abandoning the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. It also includes verification of the North Korean Fengxili Nuclear Test Site, the Dongcangli Missile Launch Pad and the engine test site, which may also be a bargaining chip for bargaining and bargaining.
The second is to gradually lift sanctions against the DPRK and promote cooperation projects between the DPRK and the ROK. In accordance with the principle of synchronization and reciprocity, North Korea has always asked the US to relax its sanctions. At present, the international community is concerned about whether the DPRK-Korean cooperation projects such as the Mount Kumgang Tourist Area and the Kaesong Industrial Park can be “loosely tied” and whether Trump can fulfill its promises.
The third is the liaison office between the DPRK and the United States. If such a contact mechanism can be established, it will undoubtedly become a milestone in the history of the DPRK-US relationship.
The fourth is to decide to sign the "Declaration of the Final War." Both North Korea and South Korea attach great importance to signing the "Declaration of the Final War" and hope to end the armistice on the Korean Peninsula as soon as possible to ensure peace on the peninsula. Whether this round of the DPRK summit can make a breakthrough is also one of the focuses.
Of course, the three feet of freezing are not a cold day, and there are many difficulties and uncertainties.
First, long-term confrontation between the DPRK and the United States, lack of strategic trust, and mutual suspicion may be the most fundamental challenges.
Second, traditional prejudice and a view of North Korea in a "condescending" attitude will hinder communication between the two sides.
Third, the leaders of the DPRK and the United States are facing different levels of domestic pressure. For example, Trump’s previous measures to ease relations with the DPRK have been criticized in the country, especially from the hardliners of the United States and the Democratic Party.
Still, the opportunity is still greater than the challenge. It can be seen that the leaders of the DPRK and the United States have shown a pragmatic and flexible style. If the DPRK and the United States can seize the current window of peace, they will have epoch-making significance for the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.
First of all, it will promote the all-round and rapid development of DPRK-ROK relations. If the summit achieves a substantive breakthrough in the DPRK nuclear issue and the DPRK-US relations, then the political and economic relations between the DPRK and the ROK will be upgraded rapidly and comprehensively.
On the afternoon of February 19th, South Korean President Wen Zai also suggested to the US side that he would use the role of the ROK in responding to the DPRK’s abandonment of the nuclear issue. Thought preparation for economic cooperation.
Senior officials of South Korea said on February 21 that they are expected to achieve positive results in the second summit meeting between the DPRK and the United States. On this basis, the official dialogue and cooperation between the ROK and the DPRK will be fully launched in March. The above remarks reflect the expectation that the ROK will reach a compromise on the DPRK and the United States to lift the sanctions and release the cooperation between the ROK and the DPRK.
Second, North Korea will become a new economic growth point in Northeast Asia. If the United States and the United Nations lift economic sanctions against North Korea, then North Korea will become a new economic growth point in Northeast Asia.
Trump has also publicly stated on several occasions that North Korea will become an "economic rocket" in the future. If the Korean-Korean railways and highways are successfully docked and connected to China and Russia's railways and highways, the economic value will be enormous.
Not only will the DPRK and the ROK benefit from economic and trade exchanges and cooperation, but Japanese goods can also be transported to adjacent cities. The direct and indirect economic value of Busan, South Korea, which is transported by rail to Asia and continental Europe, is immeasurable.
Third, it has a profound impact on geopolitics in South Korea and Northeast Asia. South Korea is a geographical peninsula country, but it has long been isolated from the Asian continent. If the DPRK and the Republic of Korea reconcile and the peninsula achieves peace, after the Korean-Korean railways and highways are connected, both South Korean personnel and goods can exchange or circulate with the Asian continent by land, thus fundamentally changing the geopolitical environment of the Korean island nation, the Korean Peninsula.
The geopolitical relationship with the Asian continent will enter a new era, which will help establish a community of destiny in Northeast Asia in the future.