Is China about to enter the era of negative population growth?
Academy of Social Sciences: China's population negative growth era is coming soon
Is China about to enter the era of negative population growth?
On January 3, 2019, the Population and Labor Green Paper: China Population and Labor Issues Report No. 19 (hereinafter referred to as the report) jointly published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House pointed out that the long-term low The fertility rate will lead to a high degree of aging and population decline, which will bring multiple challenges to the social economy. The era of negative population growth in China is coming.
According to the report, if China's total fertility rate has remained at the level of 1.6 (a number of children born in a woman's lifetime), negative population growth will occur ahead of 2027. "China's negative population growth has been overwhelming. From now on, there is no need to conduct research and policy reserves."
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that according to the forecast data released by many places, the number of births of two children is likely to drop significantly in 2018.
Recently, Huang Yushi, an associate researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, a unit directly under the National Health and Health Commission, predicted in an interview with the media that the population born in 2018 was between 1,500 and 16 million, a decrease of 1 million from the number of people born in 2017 of 17.23 million. the above.
Recent surveys in several places have also shown that the birth population in 2018 has dropped significantly. Lu Jiehua, a professor at Peking University, told the 21st Century Business Herald that in the future, the time of China’s negative population growth may even be ahead of 2027.
The era of negative population growth is accelerating
The above report pointed out that for China, the biggest population incident in the first half of the 21st century is the arrival of the era of negative population growth.
According to the report, according to the UN program, China's population will reach a peak of 1.442 billion in 2029. From 2030, it will continue to experience negative growth. In 2050, it will decrease to 1.364 billion. In 2065, it will be reduced to 1.248 billion, which is reduced to 1996.
However, if China's total fertility rate has remained at 1.6, the negative population growth will occur ahead of 2027, and the population will decrease to 1.172 billion in 2065, which is equivalent to the 1990 scale.
"In other words, after seven or eight years, China’s population will have to grow negatively. This is a huge challenge to the economy. Because the birth rate declines, the population dependency ratio, especially the old-age dependency ratio, will rise sharply, which will lead to The economic growth rate has slowed down." Gao Jian, a researcher at the Institute of Population Science of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that "the economic growth in the past years has been rapid, and there is a big factor because the population dependency ratio is low. However, since 2013, the working-age population has declined, and the population has declined. The dependency ratio has risen and the demographic dividend is disappearing."
The data show that from 1949 to 1969, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was around 6. In 1980, the total fertility rate was only 2.31, and in 1996 it fell below 1.8. The academic community estimates that the current total fertility rate is 1.6.
Recently, Ningbo, Qingdao, Liaocheng and other places announced the expected number of people born in 2018. These cities are expected to see a sharp drop in the number of births, especially the decline in the number of children. This may lead to a negative national population growth time.
The Ningbo Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission recently released the birth forecast of the household registration population in 2018. The number of registered households in Ningbo in 2018 was about 44,000. Compared with the same period of last year, it is expected to decrease by about 0.9 million, a decrease of 16.98%.
According to figures released by Qingdao, it is estimated that the registered population of Qingdao will be about 90,000 in 2018, which is 22.2% lower than the 117,700 births of the registered population in the previous year. From January to November 2018, the number of registered households in Qingdao was 81,112, a decrease of 21,737, a decrease of 21.1%. One of the children was born with a decrease of 8.8%; the birth of the second child was reduced by 29.0%.
In addition, the Shandong Liaocheng Health Planning Commission figures show that from January to November 2018, the number of people born in Liaocheng City was 64,753, of which 40,782 were born, accounting for 62.98% of the total birth, a decrease of 35.83%.
Guan Xinping, dean of the Institute of Social Construction and Management of Nankai University, believes that if the above figures are true, then the birth of the population will slow down significantly. "Now the pressure on young people's work and life is heavy, the burden of childcare is heavy, and the comprehensive factors of restraint are still many."
Urgent new coping strategies
At present, local statistical departments have investigated the situation of unhealthy births of the two children. The survey shows that the cost of living and the burden of parenting have affected fertility.
According to the data from the Sichuan Social Opinion Survey Network, the willingness of the second child in Sichuan Province was not strong in 2018. Among the respondents who had the condition of having two children, the proportion of children who planned to have two children was 20.5%. In 2016, the policy rate dropped slightly by 0.3 percentage points, while the proportion of “not planning to give birth to two children” was 8.7 percentage points higher than that of 2016.
According to the survey on the implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy conducted by the Population Department of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics in July-August 2018, the number of pregnant women registered in the city, town and village level 3 units in Sichuan in 2018 was higher than that in the same period in 2017. There are different degrees of reduction. On the whole, the impact of the current comprehensive two-child policy has slowed down. Among the respondents who intend to have two children and two children who have already given birth, the proportion of children who have two children will increase their living pressure is 86.0% and 87.7% respectively. Compared with 2016, they have increased by 5.7 and 14.7 percentage points respectively. Economic pressure, energy consumption, and nursing pressure are the three major pressures for giving birth to two children.
Lu Jiehua told reporters that the number of children and two children is rapidly declining due to the age of marriage and the age of first marriage. "The key to the next step is to have a friendly birth policy and not to increase the cost of society and affect fertility."
With the rapid decline in the number of births in China, the level of ultra-low fertility may pose enormous challenges to the economy and society, and there is a need for coping strategies.
The above report pointed out that it is necessary to correctly understand the future population development trend, actively respond to new population challenges from the aspects of material foundation, human capital, technology, system and culture, fully tap the potential of population development, and prevent population risks in a timely manner.
Among them, the future population dependency ratio in China will rise rapidly and need to have countermeasures. The population dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the number of non-working-age population to the working-age population in the overall population. It is usually measured by the number of non-working-age people who are roughly responsible for every 100 working-age people.
The above report pointed out that the inflection point of China's population dependency ratio in 2011, the dependency ratio changed from 34.2 in the previous year to 34.4, ending the decline process for more than 30 years. The population dependency ratio reached 37 in 2017. In the next 40 years, the dependency ratio of children is stable between 22-25, but the old-age dependency ratio has been rising until 2060. In 2032, China's population dependency ratio will rise to around 51, with the elderly accounting for 56%.
Guan Xinping believes that as the birth population declines, labor costs will rise rapidly. “The solution is to speed up the pace of innovation and let technology replace part of the labor force. At this time, we must play the role of education to improve production efficiency.”