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The latest development of Brexit


The latest development of Brexit: The Bank of England issued a heavy warning that it is "spoiling"? Sterling against the US dollar happened to meet the "savior"

According to a report on Thursday (November 29), Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the Bank of England has prepared for the worst possible Brexit outcome, and if the UK does not reach an agreement, it will withdraw. The EU, the UK will face at least the worst recession since World War II.
In the worst case, if the British Prime Minister Theresa May fails to pass her Brexit plan through Congress, the UK economy will shrink by 8% in one year, and real estate prices will fall by nearly a third. In contrast, the decline in UK GDP from peak to trough during the financial crisis was only slightly above 6%.
On Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Carney said at a news conference in London: "Our job is not to hold the best hope, but to make the worst." "If you are from a lot of papers, data and today's discussion The conclusion is that this is the core of the UK financial system and has prepared for the Brexit, no matter what form of Brexit."


In the absence of an agreement, doubts about the UK's credibility will plung the pound into chaos, forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates sharply to curb inflation.
The following are the main points of the "disordered" Brexit scene:
1. UK GDP fell by 8%;
2. UK house prices fell by 30%;
3. British commercial real estate prices plummeted by 48%;
4. The exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar fell by 25%, below the average level;
5. The UK unemployment rate rose to 7.5%
6. UK inflation accelerates to 6.5%
7. The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate rose to 5.5%, with an average annual rate of 4%.
8. The UK has changed from a net immigration inflow to a net outflow, and the labor supply has decreased.
The Bank of England's analysis was conducted at the request of the British Parliamentarians Committee. This is the latest highlight: there is no danger of new trade arrangements until the UK leaves the European Union (EU) on March 29.
Carney’s remarks are too pessimistic or “face-lifting”. The pound has unexpectedly encountered a “savior” against the dollar.
GBP/USD exchange rate chart
The exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar rose by 0.5% as Carney made the above remarks. This is because Fed Chairman Powell also issued a speech that was regarded as a dove by investors, which saved the pound long. Powell also said that the Fed has prepared for a series of results from the Brexit.


The Bank of England’s vision may provoke Brexit supporters, saying that the Bank of England was too pessimistic until the 2016 Brexit referendum. At the time, it warned that the British economy was at risk of recession in the months following the Brexit referendum. But the UK economy is still growing.
Bank of England’s former policy maker Andrew Sentance said on Twitter that the analysis is “highly speculative and extreme” and will “further prove that the Bank of England is involved in unnecessary politics.”
At present, British Prime Minister Theresa May is pushing her Brexit agreement, but it is not clear whether she has enough votes to pass the agreement in the key vote on December 11.
If this proposal is rejected, the UK will face a legal dilemma and there are no specific rules to regulate trade with the EU. The Bank of England made it clear that the chaotic Brexit is not its vision. It also offers other options, from what it calls the devastating Brexit, to Teresa May seeking an economic partnership with the European Union.

Although the chaotic situation will make UK GDP fall by 10.5% before the end of 2023, if it signs an agreement to maintain close ties with the EU, the loss will fall to less than 4%.
Economists said: "These figures look very pessimistic, in part because people believe that monetary policy is a mechanical response to inflation soaring. In reality, in the face of disorderly Brexit, the UK Monetary Policy Committee will be so boldly Interest rates? We are deeply suspicious of this. To take a step back, there is no doubt that the Bank of England has put some of its credit on the analysis, but if it can help British Prime Minister Theresa May reach an agreement, it will be considered worth it."
As of press time at 11:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the British pound against the US dollar exchange rate remained above yesterday's high, is now reported at 1.2835.